What country could Mexico be in 2030? What would Mexico be like if we were to see that we can build a desirable country for the vast majority, even if we think differently? What would happen if we knew that, even with those people you do not trust, you can sit down to work to forge that future?
Méxicos Posibles emerged in 2015 in response to the need to have strong institutions, promote a true culture of legality and strengthen the rule of law. With this concern, a group of citizens began to look for an innovative mechanism or a different way of proceeding that would help to correct the course of the country.
UNOS TOMAN: MÉXICO AGANDALLADO. This scenario is characterized by its inertial condition, in which powerful groups act with the objective of protecting and maintaining their power, privileges and wealth. The 3 íes -ilegality, insecurity and inequality- increase progressively. The country's major problems do not seem susceptible to being dealt with effectively, so the actions to address them are limited to contain them, but not to solve them.
ALGUNOS PONEN: MÉXICO PASMADO. This scenario is characterized because in it the changes promoted by the government are limited. A small group of change agents whose members belong to civil society, the government and the private sector, take advantage of the discontent caused by these limitations to strengthen themselves and to work more effectively and intensively to reduce the 3 íes, from different fronts. However, there is a marked separation between decision makers and society as a whole. The work does not generate the same effect throughout the national territory, which translates into an inconsistent decrease of the 3 íes. Although there are important achievements, which are built by means of agreements, it does not solve the citizen's discomfort in relation to the political task. Said discomfort can open the doors to left-wing or right-wing populist candidates, which in turn can enhance some of the other scenarios.
TODOS PONEN: MÉXICO RESPONSABLE. This scenario is characterized because the elites and the leaders of the country in the public and private sectors are willing to sacrifice their personal and union privileges, for a greater and collective good. By perceiving that others put on their side, a virtuous circle is generated where citizens begin to trust and yield to the benefit of the common good. This translates into deep reforms and concrete actions that, over time, generate a strengthening of the rule of law and a broad culture of legality. The starting point lies in the end of the agreements of impunity between politicians, contractors, judges and criminals. Since the change overturns large interests -legal in most cases-, in the short term inequalities and insecurity increase, but the work that is carried out to improve the illegality, produces a change in the other two (inequity and insecurity) in the medium and long term. Finally, organized crime is limited and ceases to be a threat to the Mexican State.
TODOS PIERDEN: MÉXICO FALLIDO. This scenario is characterized by its condition of disruption, in which society polarizes. Some support a state of exception that is established in the name of order, others do not trust the authorities and decide to take justice into their own hands and others are between these two groups. The 3 íes worsen although functional islands remain.